Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale[none of these happen in 2026] 72.2%+2.1ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+2.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
4 giu 26, 01:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX catch Ship before New Glenn RTF?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
[tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron??
- Manifold Markets quota [none of these happen in 2026] al 72% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron??
- Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: [tweet]Update 2026-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For New Glenn and Neutron, the resolution standard is clearing the pad — full success or reaching orbit is not required.