Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??

Manifold Markets quota Before 2030 al 72.9% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??

When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.

IAOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Before 2030 72.9%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 ore fa

Obsoleto

31 ago 26, 19:37 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
(Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).