Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeJul-Dec 2026 97.8%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto2 apr 26, 18:19 UTC1 gen 33, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the date (UTC) on which a SpaceX Starship vehicle successfully reaches Earth orbit for the first time.
- For the purpose of this market, Achieving Earth orbit means the Starship upper stage (Ship) completes at least one full, uninterrupted revolution around Earth on a trajectory where its perigee remains above the sensible atmosphere (roughly 100 km altitude), such that it could continue orbiting without further propulsion.
- A suborbital trajectory that reenters before completing one full orbit — even if it reaches orbital altitude and velocity briefly — does not count.
- The orbit does not need to be circular, long-lived, or carry any particular payload; what matters is that the vehicle demonstrably enters a closed (or near-closed) elliptical path around the Earth and sustains it for at least one complete revolution.
- High-apogee suborbital hops, intentional deorbit-before-one-revolution test profiles, and breakup during ascent do not count.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $82,000 or above99%
- $82,250 or above99%
- $81,750 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 968,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 967,9K €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 200-219+27.0pt68.3%
- 220-239+24.0pt30.7%
- 240-259+0.1pt1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 85,000 to 89,999.99-0.9pt11.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt11.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.2pt9.8%
+25 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $65,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $66,500 or above99%
- $67,000 or above99%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt34%
- 220-239+14.0pt24.5%
- 180-199-17.5pt17.9%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 22, 2026?
- Newark+59.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+95.0pt99%
- Philadelphia+11.0pt99%
+24 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- ETH price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- ETH price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 22, 2026?
- What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of September 21 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Starship reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets quota Jul-Dec 2026 al 97.8% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Starship reach orbit??
- When will Starship reach orbit? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2033.
- Come viene liquidato When will Starship reach orbit??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria