Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBy end of December 2028 87.1%In testa tra 11 esiti
Previsori
49
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto11 mar 24, 08:27 UTC1 gen 27, 12:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRegole
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.