Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??

Manifold Markets quota 2026 Jul-Dec al 86.6% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??

When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.

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Previsione della comunità attuale

2026 Jul-Dec 86.6%

In testa tra 7 esiti

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multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Variazione 7g

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Aggiornato 12 ore fa

Obsoleto

19 mar 25, 22:06 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC

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At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.

This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
Clarifications:
Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment