Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2026 Jul-Dec 53.8%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto19 mar 25, 22:06 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegole
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
- This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
- Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
- Clarifications:
- Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
- The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 Mln €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6K €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume totale
- 736,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??
- Manifold Markets quota 2026 Jul-Dec al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??
- When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.