Previsione della comunità attuale
Before Jan 1, 2029 50%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto25 apr 26, 16:40 UTC1 gen 30, 17:39 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsWill AI be able to read minds by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsAble to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these outcomes of the NYT vs. OpenAI lawsuit will occur?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.
- A few clarifications:
- Multiple options can resolve yes
- This applies to assistants where you don’t self-host models on your own GPUs
- It should be able to do this after a single request from the user, without requiring repeated prompts (feel free to prompt engineer that starting prompt as much as you'd like).
- In other words, the audio it plays should be like what would happen if you pressed play at the start of an audiobook
