When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?
2.9 pt (24h)One-OffTecnologiaScienzaManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2028 22.1%-2.9ptIn testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-2.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto9 gen 26, 08:29 UTC1 gen 01, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES when a humanoid robot (bipedal, anthropomorphic form factor) successfully completes all of the following in a single, continuous attempt:
- Unboxes a previously unreleased Lego set with 5,000+ pieces
- Reads and interprets the instruction manual as provided to human builders
- Assembles the entire model according to the manual without human intervention
- Resolution will be determined by video evidence published by the robot manufacturer or verified by independent third parties.
