Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)?

Manifold Markets quota As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100 al 95.2% al 26 ottobre 2026.

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 13:08 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

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As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100 95.2%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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11 ago 24, 01:23 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC

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@RobinHanson recently tweeted

> I have heard reports that I can’t make public updating me to guess ems are more likely to arrive first, before full cheap human level AGI.
What did Hanson see? I will resolve Yes/No when something becomes pretty clear to me, might resolve N/A to not lock up mana.