Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualesafely returns to Earth 93.9%In testa tra 35 esiti
Previsori
57
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto7 apr 24, 05:06 UTC31 dic 39, 15:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill the next person to walk on the moon be American?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRegole
All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.
- Add your own.
- Should be easily verified (ie nothing like "they love pineapple on pizza").
- Intention is "what will be the properties of Neil Armstrong 2.0".
- In general, all items are taken to be "as publicly known, at the time of the landing".
- So if the astronaut is trans but stealth and this has somehow not come up, it would resolve 'NO' for 'the named outcome'.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
- $73,250 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 685,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 680,9K €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- 65-89+50.5pt56.4%
- 40-64-6.6pt41.6%
- 90-114+1.6pt2%
+7 altri esiti
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No74.1%
- Yes25.9%
- Volume totale
- 303,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 298,8K €
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.4pt13.9%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99+0.4pt12%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.7pt12%
+25 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+4.0pt24.5%
- 200-219+10.0pt24.5%
- 220-239+7.0pt15.7%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $66,000 or above98%
- $67,000 or above98%
- $65,500 or above97%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 452,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 143K €
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Where will it rain on Sep 14, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 14, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 14, 2026?
- BTC 15 min · $77,736.55 target
- ETH price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets quota safely returns to Earth al 94% al 14 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES] dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2039.
- Come viene liquidato What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.