Previsione della comunità attuale
October 53.1%-0.7ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-0.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo19 mag 26, 11:51 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiRegole
Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
- If a storm is active across two distinct months, I’ll do my best to estimate the breakdown of ACE into the two months.
- I may ask Claude Opus 4.7 for assistance in resolving the question if needed.
- Source for resolution: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
- In the unlikely case of a tie, I will use the number of storms in a month.
- In case of an even unlikelier subsequent tie, I will use the number of active days in a month.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume totale
- 241,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 128K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 349,4K €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season??
- Manifold Markets quota October al 53% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season??
- What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).