Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 97.5%-0.1ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo2 mag 26, 05:37 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
