What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
One-OffSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) 80%In testa tra 27 esiti
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo3 feb 24, 00:43 UTC1 gen 01, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true?
Manifold MarketsWhat conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Manifold MarketsWill any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRegole
All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu)Any option that doesn't follow these criteria will resolve N/A. Options may also resolve N/A if it is not sufficiently clear what would count as the theory being true or not.
- Otherwise, options will resolve YES if they are proven to be true by 2100 and NO if they are not. "Proven to be true" means that the proof should be widely accepted by experts on the event, and that it is possible for members of the general public to access the information which proves it true (so, a small secluded group having access to proof that a conspiracy theory is true doesn't count if this proof is not widely disseminated).
- It also means that the option is proven to have been true at the time it was submitted, so, for example, if someone submits "The U.S. government is hiding aliens in Area 51" in 2024, and then the government actually starts hiding aliens in Area 51 in 2050, with proof of this coming out in 2070, it will still resolve NO.
- If there is a controversy over whether a certain theory has been proven true or not and I am not around to adjudicate it, mods have permission to use any system they have in place for determining whether controversial markets with inactive/dead creators should resolve to YES or NO (e.g., determining it by a vote among mods).
- If no general system exists at the time, they have permission to form a panel to determine the resolution.
Mercati aperti
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt47.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt28.6%
- <40-3.0pt15.2%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 35,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 11,8K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-67.0pt1%
- Volume totale
- 10,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,4K €
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Volume totale
- 8,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5K €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Volume totale
- 14,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 608,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume totale
- 515,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 515,7 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume totale
- 515,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 515,7 €
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- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Is Earth flat?
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100??
- Manifold Markets quota The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) al 80% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100??
- What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2101.
- Come viene liquidato What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market: