Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 19:35 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%In testa tra 10 esiti
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto12 lug 24, 17:20 UTC30 giu 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRegole
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.