Previsione della comunità attuale
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto12 lug 24, 17:20 UTC30 giu 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
100%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRegole
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election??
- Manifold Markets quota One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election??
- What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2029.
- Come viene liquidato What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?