Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore February 2027 70.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiPrison Break: New season release date
KalshiThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRegole
The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only the Pro tier counts — a Flash release does not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called DeepSeek V4.1 Pro, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before February 2027 al 71% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date?
- V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market.