Quali sono le probabilità attuali per U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

Manifold Markets quota No al 88.9% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency? dovrebbe risolversi il 20 gennaio 2029.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

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No 88.9%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 25 minuti fa

3 nov 25, 23:51 UTC20 gen 29, 11:59 UTC

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Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump’s current presidency, the United States tests or uses a nuclear weapon.

“Test” means any nuclear detonation — underground, atmospheric, or subcritical — officially conducted or authorized by the U.S. government for research, maintenance, or demonstration purposes.
“Use” means the detonation of a nuclear weapon in military action or combat.
The market resolves NO if Trump’s presidency ends without either event occurring.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements (e.g. Department of Defense (“War”), Department of Energy, or the White House) or confirmation by major media outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or The New York Times.