The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026
PoliticaOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS Politics3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
COVID (mRNA vaccines) 100%In testa tra 14 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto7 nov 24, 23:41 UTC4 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
100%
100%
Mercati Correlati
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KalshiRegole
Trump has a lot of prominent anti-vaxxers in his circle, including RFK Jr. who has flip-flopped about whether he wants to see vaccines banned.
- So here's a market for a dozen common vaccines in the US.
- Each of these markets will resolve YES if, any some time prior to the seating of the 120th congress (Jan 3, 2027), the vaccine becomes greatly more expensive, less covered by major insurance, or in sufficient shortage to cause people to miss scheduled doses, or no longer approved for significant populations (e.g. children or the elderly) that could previously get it in the US.
- Removal of mandates or recommendations will not be a YES unless it also results in changes in insurance coverage or availability.
- No distinction will be made as to whether the reduced availability is attributable to an obvious government policy, natural disaster, occult UFO conspiracy, or chance, because I don't want to suss out means and motives to resolve the market.
- If I've missed an interesting vaccine, or otherwise messed up a choice, request it in the comments.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026?
- Manifold Markets quota COVID (mRNA vaccines) al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026?
- The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 4 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Trump has a lot of prominent anti-vaxxers in his circle, including RFK Jr. who has flip-flopped about whether he wants to see vaccines banned.