Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeTesla 65.5%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto26 apr 25, 06:27 UTC31 dic 26, 06:38 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will California have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill New York City have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Tesla is planning to release self-driving taxis in June.
- Waymo has been scaling their self-driving taxi service for a while.
- This market is to predict, between Waymo and Tesla, which company will first be responsible for a vehicle that is designed to be fully autonomous (i.e. operated with no driver behind the wheel, if there even is a wheel) and is available for public use causing a major accident.
- If the vehicle has a wheel, it must be operating without user input at the time of the crash.
- A major accident must
- Be reported on in at least two major news outlets, AND