Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?
RegolamentazioneOne-Off2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 14:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 90.4%
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5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto10 apr 26, 21:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
- In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
- If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.