Previsione della comunità attuale
No 88.6%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 29 minuti fa
21 nov 23, 20:03 UTC1 nov 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Significant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsSignificant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026
Manifold MarketsDid the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?
Manifold MarketsWill Hal Finney be successfully revived by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the Goldbach conjecture be solved by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme Dilithium (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://pq-crystals.org/dilithium/index.shtml
