Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 59.8% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2032.

CriptoOne-Off5a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 59.8%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

5 ago 22, 23:19 UTC1 gen 32, 06:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032.
There will be no early resolution.
(Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)
I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly.
For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.