Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates 50%In testa tra 3 esiti
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1
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto2 apr 26, 01:40 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
A new paper from Google demonstrates that there are procedures that break 256-bit ECDLP over secp256k1 with, optionally:
- ≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
- ≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
- This question asks if improvements will be made to this frontier by EoY 2028.