Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:25 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%In testa tra 10 esiti
Natural death (or one appearing as such) 25.5%Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto5 dic 24, 18:11 UTC1 gen 41, 20:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and out of custody for at least 7 days after he ceases to be the president of Russia?
Manifold MarketsHow will Vladimir Putin cease to be President of Russia?
Manifold MarketsIf Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsWill Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the primary reason why Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia.
- If multiple events occur simultaneously or in quick succession (e.g., a the named outcome followed by impeachment), the market will resolve to the initial triggering event.
- Resolution criteria for each option:
- Obviously unnatural death: Clear evidence of assassination, missile strike, or other non-natural causes
- Natural death (or one appearing as such): Death attributed to health issues or age-related causes, or deaths where the cause is unclear/disputed
