Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 93.4%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 36 minuti fa
26 ott 26, 22:48 UTC1 giu 27, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by which date?
PolymarketIs the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsIs the Exponential Time Hypothesis true?
Manifold MarketsWhen will exponential time horizon growth break?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Context: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/
- I'll resolve based on the consensus of the mathematical community at market close.
- For intuition (these are not binding rules, more like, rough guidelines):
- If it's demonstrated to be incorrect before the close date, then this can resolve NO early.
- If at market close there's no particular evidence to doubt its validity, by default resolves YES.
- If there's substantial ongoing work to verify it, I will leave the market closed and wait to resolve until it doesn't seem like that work is still ongoing.