Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.1%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto10 feb 25, 22:38 UTC1 lug 30, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold Markets60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiHow many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an orgy on the moon by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
Manifold MarketsHarry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
KalshiRegole
Announced and confirmed by them, or credible clear reports that they don't live together and/ or are separated.
- Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria clarification:
- Death does not count: Only a deliberate decay of the relationship (through divorce or separation) meets the resolution criteria.
- Focus on relationship decay: The market outcome is based solely on whether the relationship falls apart, not on events such as a death.
- Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's deadline of 'mid 2030' is defined as the end of day on June 30, 2030, California time.
