Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 29 giu 2026, 03:43 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2
Previsione della comunità attuale[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%) 90.6%In testa tra 113 esiti
Previsori
179
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 giorni fa
Obsoleto28 gen 25, 17:012 feb 29, 4:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)91%
Mercati Correlati
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
438,6 €Sì: 23%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat is Quroe's favorite animal?
214,9 €❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]: 0.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhen will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?
206 €Before June 2026: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US gas prices this week
538,8K €Above 3.900: 1%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
298,4K €↑ $70: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 13, 2026?
215,6K €Above $74.99: 34%KALSHI
KALSHIAttivi in questi argomenti
Notizie Correlate
UN's First AI Safety Panel Says Scientists Can't Rule Out 'Catastrophic Harm'Decrypt
NVIDIA Explores RLVR for AI Agents with Nemotron 3 SuperBlockchain.News
X.ai Launches No-Code Voice Agent Builder for Grok VoiceBlockchain.NewsNVIDIA Expands U.S. AI Manufacturing with $500B VisionBlockchain.News
Anthropic restores AI models Fable, Mythos after the U.S. lifts export controlsCoindesk
Anthropic to bring back Fable 5 as US lifts export controlsCointelegraphRegole
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca