Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale![[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FStopPunting%2FllgClN6RgS.jpg&w=64&q=80)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%In testa tra 113 esiti
Previsori
187
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto28 gen 25, 17:01 UTC2 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
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- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
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- 1480+-1.0pt66%
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- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions?
- Manifold Markets quota [Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions?
- Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions dovrebbe risolversi il 2 febbraio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):