Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 92.7%
Previsori
87
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
26 apr 26, 05:47 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027
Manifold MarketsWhen will Slay the Spire 2 be fully released?
Manifold MarketsWill Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?
Manifold MarketsWill an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Needs to wins 3 consecutive runs
- Savescumming does not count
- The LLM agent is allowed to take notes on its failed attempts and craft hooks that generate a higher informational representation of its current state.
- The LLM is not allowed to use/develop a solver to assist in play, though it is permitted to use such systems to aid in post analysis and heuristics crafting
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Act 4 / the Heart boss is added to STS2, defeating it will be required for a valid run
- The creator's general guidance for their standard of "reliable" is: the LLM should have a >75% chance of achieving a win within ~2-3 hours of runtime