Previsione della comunità attuale
No 56%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto2 mar 25, 01:06 UTC1 gen 00, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek IPO before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsAny leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketThird-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a US spy was working at Deepseek at any point in the period 2025-2035.
- If, by January 1st 2100, there is no evidence for this, then this question resolves as NO.
- If there is weak evidence, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. The NO and N/A resolutions cannot occur before January 1st 2100.