Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 13:11 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 73.7%
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo24 giu 24, 21:42 UTC1 lug 27, 21:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegole
LLMs can distinguish their own output from the output of different LLMs and they have a preference for their own output, so it's technically feasible to manipulate the leaderboard by throwing an LLM at the chatbot arena to upvote its own completions.
- Has this happened yet? Will it happen soon?
- Resolves NO iff, before 2027/7/1, credible media reports state that the lmsys leaderboard has been manipulated with sockpuppet accounts / fraudulent voting.
- A statement coming directly from lmsys would also count.
- Resolves YES otherwise.
