Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.7%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto6 dic 25, 20:12 UTC1 gen 28, 20:08 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegole
The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
- This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
- Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes.
- If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification:
- If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES
Mercati aperti
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume totale
- 916K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5K €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 863,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1K €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak??
- Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Is African swine fever in Spain a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/