Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezioneMiddle East3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 74.9%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ott 24, 09:00 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.?
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/