Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 19 ott 2026, 19:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
2031 12.2%In testa tra 19 esiti
2031 12.2%Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ott 24, 14:05 UTC31 dic 40, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold Markets[don't bet yet, finalizing details] Will a Musk Company or Elon do large geoengineering projects for global warming?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExWill the Average Global Temperature for any year be greater than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2040?
ForecastExRegole
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius.
- This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target.
- Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
