In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
One-OffIATecnologia14a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSome year after 2040. 31.1%In testa tra 21 esiti
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In ritardo2 lug 23, 11:10 UTC16 feb 41, 13:48 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.