If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 67.2%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
7 ott 26, 02:54 UTC3 gen 29, 17:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
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Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Supreme Court justice?
KalshiNext Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
FutuurRegole
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if any justice of the U.S. Supreme Court retires, resigns, dies or otherwise leaves the Court between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- A retirement counts when it takes effect; an announced retirement that has not taken effect by January 3, 2029 does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
