If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 15 ott 2026, 05:31 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 66.7%
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1
Tipo di domanda
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 26, 02:54 UTC3 gen 29, 17:00 UTC
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Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate confirms 40 or more Article III judges (Supreme Court, courts of appeals, district courts and the Court of International Trade) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, as counted by the Federal Judicial Center's biographical directory or the Senate's record of confirmations.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
