IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
IAOne-Off2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 64%
Previsori
59
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto31 lug 23, 23:41 UTC2 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
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This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.
- If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.
- Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364
- Related markets: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e
- [link preview]
