Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeConflict in Asia 76%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ott 25, 12:46 UTC1 gen 27, 15:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolution Criteria
- Answer option "the named outcome", will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any Asian countries/regions, same as "the named outcome", "the named outcome", "the named outcome", "the named outcome" will resolve to "Yes" if significant military escalation has happened in any European, American, African or Antarctican countries/regions.
- When World War happens across two or more continents listed above, all the conflict origin continents will resolve to "Yes".
- "World War" will be considered to have begun only if there is a widespread consensus among at least 5, countries or 5 major international organizations (e.g., United Nations, NATO, G7, G20) and at least 10 leading global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, New York Times, The Guardian) that a conflict has escalated to a global scale, involving at least 2 major powers across at least 2 continents, and is explicitly referred to as a "World War" or its equivalent (e.g., "World War III").
