Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will my laptop degrade??

Manifold Markets quota 2029 or earlier al 56.3% al 1 novembre 2026.

Quando si risolve When will my laptop degrade??

When will my laptop degrade? dovrebbe risolversi il 5 gennaio 2030.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

2029 or earlier 56.3%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 ore fa

Obsoleto

26 ott 25, 15:01 UTC5 gen 30, 14:18 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves YES if I notice my laptop's hardware performance has degraded so much that it significantly impacts my usage.

Resolves NO if the year passes without those issues.
resolves NA if I stop using my laptop but I still judge it to be in good condition.
Not sure how I should resolve in case of theft, loss, or damage clearly unrelated to age (e.g. falling from a building).
Currently leaning towards NA, but will announce in a comment if this changes.
Examples of things that would make it resolve YES: