Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 59.9%
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71
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto29 set 25, 13:03 UTC31 dic 34, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Greta Thunberg calls for AI research pause/halt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsGreta Thunberg arrested by which date?
PolymarketWill Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Greta Thunberg be sentenced to prison before 2030
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:
- Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")
- Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador
- Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause
- Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals
- This market does NOT resolve YES if:
