Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.3%
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19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto21 lug 23, 00:31 UTC2 gen 00, 04:59 UTC
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This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/
- [link preview]
