Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
SportOne-OffIAScienzaScacchiTecnologia9a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 60.9%
No 60.9%Previsori
82
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
14 feb 24, 23:27 UTC2 gen 36, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
This is a market about whether a preserved human brain will be digitized (at the resolution of synapses, and with a fidelity estimated at >90% of synapses).
- This is not for doing anything with the data, just getting it onto a computer.
- To qualify, the dataset would need to include: the whole connectome (e.g. neurons reconstructed from scanned slices), approximate synapse strength (this comes through in electron microscopy, and certain molecular labeling regimes), the cell type (e.g. Glutamate vs GABA vs dopamine, etc), and the degree of myelination of axons.
- I believe that this would constitute sufficient information for an accurate emulation of the scanned brain, but determining whether that is true isn't part of this question.
