Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 64.8%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto4 ago 26, 18:40 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, a single cyberattack or single coordinated cyberattack campaign is estimated to have caused $30 billion (USD) or more in total damages or economic losses.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Definition of a "Cyberattack": The incident must be a malicious, intentional intrusion, disruption, or exploitation of computer systems, networks, or operational technology by a threat actor (such as ransomware, wiper malware, malware-led supply chain compromises, or state-sponsored infrastructure attacks).
- Non-malicious IT failures, accidental software updates, or hardware malfunctions (e.g., the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage) do not qualify.
- Coordinated Campaign: A series of closely related intrusions using the same malware strain, targeting the identical vulnerability, or executed by the same threat group within a defined timeframe (analogous to the NotPetya or WannaCry campaigns of 2017) will count as a single cyberattack.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume totale
- 620K €
- Volume 24h
- 536K €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 428,7K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029??
- Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria