Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.7%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto25 mar 25, 05:23 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
PolymarketWill Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
Manifold MarketsWill Nvidia's Blackwell chips be sold in China by the end of 2026?
Futuur[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate.
- Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports.
- Company press reports would not count.
- Considerations
- "Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer.
- A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.
