Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo change (65%) 26.8%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto8 giu 26, 11:28 UTC2 mag 27, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 1.5% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 0.5% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegole
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.
- How much will the results change between then and the May 2027 poll?
- Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%, 65%.
- I will not bet on this market.
