Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
< 2040 31.9%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ago 24, 14:49 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran legalize gay marriage?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,6 Mln €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 984,1K €
- Next French Presidential Election
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage??
- Manifold Markets quota < 2040 al 32% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage??
- When will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.