Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 00:23 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
2030/01/01 88.9%In testa tra 15 esiti
2030/01/01 88.9%Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto3 gen 24, 22:53 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
Manifold MarketsWhen will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRegole
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
- Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
- Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting