Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 35 minuti fa
17 nov 23, 12:46 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In 2026, will it be apparent deep learning hit a non-transient wall at some point in 2023-2025?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication
Manifold MarketsWill the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?
Manifold MarketsWill "The paper that killed deep learning theory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegole
Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.
- 'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.
- Resolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion.
- Best available form of polling will be used if needed.
- I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.
- Note that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems.
