Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
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Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto17 dic 23, 14:34 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008
- Resolves based on whether this tweet broadly seems correct.
- A single AI trained on language and other modalities must be able to do all of those things, particularly the agentic long-term planning and world modeling needed for that Minecraft objective.
- It must be capable of doing them in sequence, transferring knowledge and intention across contexts.
- It must not appear to care in any way if it's shut down.
- (It must have the ability to meaningfully prevent shutdown, since otherwise it would obviously just lie.)
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 61% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown??
- Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008