Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 79.6%
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto23 nov 25, 22:48 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.
- The metric we are looking it as percentage of non-correct answers that are hallucinations.
- To count, the model must be somewhere close to frontier, defined by being a release by a major lab that is larger than 7b parameters and competitive for its size class.
- No tool use allowed.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%??
- Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.