Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 71.2% al 26 ottobre 2026.

Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028?

One-OffIA2a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 71.2%

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Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato ieri

Obsoleto

22 ott 25, 13:43 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.

The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
This would likely include cases where:
The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
If in doubt I'll make the call.