A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all?

Manifold Markets quota No al 75.9% al 20 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all?

A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2999.

Come viene liquidato A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all?

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Copied over from Elicit

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KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 23.8%+11.0pt98.5%
• Above 22.7%+2.0pt98.5%
• Above 24.6%+13.0pt95.5%

+6 altri esiti

Volume totale

200,3K €

Volume 24h

180,5K €

POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+0.5pt24%
• 2028+1.0pt18%
• 2027-1.0pt9%

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+1.5pt91%
• ↑$1.75T+0.5pt70%
• ↑$2.0T+6.0pt63%

+10 altri esiti

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-0.9pt51.4%
• Gemini37.5%
• ChatGPT+0.1pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+6.2pt79.8%
• Anthropic-7.0pt19.2%
• OpenAI+0.2pt1%

+18 altri esiti

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.8pt97%
• October 31+4.2pt84%
• October 24-14.5pt33%

+11 altri esiti

• Best AI this week
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Anthropic share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
• OpenAI market share this week
• Anthropic share of requests on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
• OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Open vs. Closed Token market share (Vercel) in Oct 20, 2026